Economic viability from an investor’s viewpoint is determined by means of DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) methodology and risk assessment inclusion. The principle model applied for this purpose is a generic dynamic business plan (“complete finance plan”). It consists of a time series stack of the standard financial accounting statements in combination with compatible planning sheets of financing transactions in excess of 20 cost centers and up to 50 accounting periods (e.g. years). Site, technology and case specific value creation processes, i.e. the dynamic development of revenues and cost over time of plant operations as a function of multiple input and boundary variables, are simulated in separate project specific calculation sheets (“project specific sub-models”)
Economic Viability and Risk
Investment or project risks are incurred by esitmation and prediction uncertainties (e.g. future energy prices, ECB basic interest rate, inflatuion, sales volumes, future standards and regulations etc.). In order to assess the impacts of these unvertainties upon the project's economic KPIs and to qwuantify the related investment risk the following methods are applied:
Sensitivity Analysis (of the dynamic economic model)
Szenario Analysis (base case, best case, worst case)
The results are risk measures in form of confidence intervals of the KPIs or probability percentiels of negative NPVs and the cumulative risk of equity loss.
The methodology is peer-reviewed and published in Arnold, U., Yildiz, O. Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – a Monte Carlo Simulation approach. Renewable Energy 2015, 77, 227-239
Financing and Organization
AHP develops financing and organization models, if classical pathways of project financing don't offer the wanted results. The following models have been tested and applied in the past:
(public-private-partnership models, if desired with separate ownership and operation Company)
PFI (private financing initiative with local stakeholders)
The organization model is detailed by means of the relevant contracts (e.g. company statutes, service contracts). The financing model is represented by the complkete finance plan (see above).