Skills and Tools

Keys to Solutions: Systematics - Methods - Instruments

Feasibility and Potential

Potential Analysis

Potential Analysis derives the realistic development potential of a site, a region, a company or a business concept. For this Purpose, the following analysis tools are applied by AHP:

  • Structuring: Object, goals, path, incremental roadmap

  • Status-Quo-analysis

  • Economic environment analysis: sector, actors, competition

  • Trend analysis

  • Market Research

  • Survey

  • Stakeholder- and expert interviews

  • Best Practice identification and suitability assessment

  • SWOT-Analysis

  • Product-Market-Checks

  • Profile-Matching - Spider-Diagrams

  • Scoring

  • Cost-Usage-Value-Analyse

  • Techno-economic simulation

  • Risik-analysis

  • Strategy design

  • structured action-plan - Roadmap

Project management

Investment and R&D Projects

Effective project management ensures continuous monitoring of plan-reality deviations and supports focussing on the comprehensive project targets. This may include the following activity elements:

  • Structurierung: Objectives, tasks, contributors, resources, deadlines

  • Organization of the project consortium

  • Estimation of available resources (Budgeting)

  • Work agenda and schedule

  • conceptual Project development (R&D: Project outline)

  • Securing of subsidizability, grant proposal, grant management

  • Financing-model, financing Management

  • procurement: public Tenders

  • Cost-, time-, quality-controlling

  • Coordination of planners

  • Coordination of permit procedures

  • Coordination and survey of construction and supply

  • Contract-management

  • Continous survey of economic and financial viability

  • Continuous updating of project plan

  • Documentation

  • Monitoring

Economic Viability and Risk

Economic viability from an investor’s viewpoint is determined by means of DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) methodology and risk assessment inclusion. The principle model applied for this purpose is a generic dynamic business plan (“complete finance plan”). It consists of a time series stack of the standard financial accounting statements in combination with compatible planning sheets of financing transactions in excess of 20 cost centers and up to 50 accounting periods (e.g. years). Site, technology and case specific value creation processes, i.e. the dynamic development of revenues and cost over time of plant operations as a function of multiple input and boundary variables, are simulated in separate project specific calculation sheets (“project specific sub-models”)

Economic Viability and Risk

Risk Analysis

Investment or project risks are incurred by esitmation and prediction uncertainties  (e.g. future energy prices, ECB basic interest rate, inflatuion, sales volumes, future standards and regulations etc.). In order to assess the impacts of these unvertainties  upon the project's economic KPIs and to qwuantify the related investment risk the following methods are applied:

  • Sensitivity Analysis (of the dynamic economic model)

  • Szenario Analysis (base case, best case, worst case)

  • Monte-Carlo-Simulation

 

The results are risk measures in form of confidence intervals of the KPIs or probability percentiels of negative NPVs and the cumulative risk of equity loss. 

The methodology is peer-reviewed and published in 
Arnold, U., Yildiz, O. Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – a Monte Carlo Simulation approach. Renewable Energy 2015, 77, 227-239

Financing and Organization

Financing Models

AHP develops financing and organization models, if classical pathways of project financing don't offer the wanted results. The following models have been tested and applied in the past:

  • PPP
    (public-private-partnership models, if desired with separate ownership and operation Company) 

  • Contracting

  • Concession

  • PFI
    (private financing initiative with local stakeholders)

  • Citizen foundation

  • Cooperative

  • Association

 

The organization model is detailed by means of the relevant contracts (e.g. company statutes, service contracts). The financing model is represented by the complkete finance plan (see above).